Keselowski looking for bigger points lead at Bristol

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/17/2010 - Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Friday, August 20. Race: Food City 250. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track: .533-mile oval. Start time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 250. Miles: 133.25. 2009 winner: David Ragan. Television: ESPN. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

After winning at his hometrack in Michigan last Saturday, Brad Keselowski is running away with this year's Nationwide Series title. Keselowski enters Friday's race at Bristol with a commanding 347-point lead over Carl Edwards.

"I want to win races going for the championship," said Keselowski, whose fourth Nationwide win this season came at Michigan. "We just don't want to coast through it."

Keselowski won at Bristol two years ago when he drove the No.88 car for team owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. He has finished second, third and 12th in the last three Nationwide races here.

In March, Keselowski's Penske Racing teammate, Justin Allgaier, won his first career Nationwide race at Bristol.

Allgaier, the 2009 rookie of the year in the series, passed Keselowski after a restart with 27 laps remaining. Keselowski made several attempts to pass Allgaier for the lead, but wound up finishing two car-lengths behind him.

"I couldn't be happier to get this [car] in victory lane, and it's even better when you can do it here at Bristol," Allgaier said after his win. "This is one of my favorite racetracks of all time, and to be able to come out of here with a win means a lot."

Allgaier currently is fourth in points.

Earnhardt Jr. will make his third Nationwide start this season. Last month, Earnhardt Jr. won at Daytona in the new Nationwide car's inaugural race. He drove the No.3 Wrangler Chevrolet, which was made famous by his father in the Cup Series during the 1980's.

The new car ran for the second time last weekend at Michigan.

In August 2004, Earnhardt Jr. became the first driver to score a weekend sweep at Bristol, as he won the Friday Nationwide race and then the Cup event the following day.

Kevin Harvick has the most Nationwide victories at Bristol with five. Harvick is not entered in Friday's race. Elliott Sadler will drive his No.33 Chevrolet.

Fifty-two teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Food City 250.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

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In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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